Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two essays that aim for neutrality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
